The pressure is on: looking ahead to COP28

By Talia Shehadeh, Consultant

Eight years ago, nations came together to adopt the Paris Agreement. However, since then efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 and even 2 degrees have not progressed as intensely or swiftly as needed.

Extreme weather events, rising temperatures and mounting evidence of environmental degradation have intensified the global sense of urgency for action against climate change. Yet, we are well on our way to surpassing the targets set in Paris, as scientists have long warned.

In the words of UN Secretary General António Guterres: “The era of global boiling has arrived… The air is unbreathable. The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable.”

The pressure to increase the pace and scale of action is reaching an all-time high. With two months to go, COP28 comes at a crucial juncture in our battle against climate change.

The 30th of November 2023 will mark the start of the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The UN Conference of the Parties (COP), as it has done since the first COP in Bonn in 1995, brings together world leaders, policymakers, scientists, and activists to discuss and implement emissions reductions and mitigation and adaptation strategies.

This year’s COP is poised to be a particularly challenging and contentious conference. The host nation’s ties to the oil and gas industry, and track record on human rights, have caused people to question whether the United Arab Emirates is an appropriate host for a climate change conference, especially at this juncture. It has heightened apprehensions over the potential success of this year’s COP and the real impact and validity of the COP process more broadly.

The appointment of Sultan Al-Jaber, the current CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), as COP28 President has been highly controversial and prompted a global civil society and political movement calling for his removal. In a statement from Amnesty International earlier this year, the human rights group cautioned that Al-Jaber’s appointment as COP president will promote interests of the fossil fuel industry. The UAE are in the top 10 oil producing countries and one of the earliest members of OPEC. Oil and gas revenues make up around 30% of the UAE’s GDP – an unsettling fact to face when the conference’s aim is to reduce global carbon emissions. Concerns around the host nations’ ties to the oil and gas industry will likely be heightened intense lobbying efforts from the very same industry.

As we saw at COP27 in Egypt, concerns around the host nation’s human rights record somewhat overshadowed the conference, and was part of why many considered it a failed COP. It is likely that COP28 will face similar issues. The UAE has been labelled as ‘not free’ by Freedom House, with the same global freedom score as Egypt. NGOs have not failed to raise their concerns, emphasising the negative impacts this will likely have on the success of COP28. While the UAE has pledged in a joint statement with the UN that it would make “space available for climate activists to assemble peacefully and make their voices heard”, human rights groups are sceptical, based on previous events in the country.

So, between industry ties or human rights, apprehensions about the appropriateness of the UAE as host will no doubt persist, rendering COP28 a difficult conference for nations, NGOs and businesses to navigate.

On top of this, a Global Stocktake (GST) will be taken at COP28 for the first time at COP28. The GST will assess and demonstrate progress (or lack of) towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. It will identify the gaps, demonstrate where the Paris Agreement has failed, and help to inform and agree on a new pathway to 2030 and beyond. The limited progress towards the Paris Agreement will be blatantly apparent and this is likely to be yet another wake-up call for the world.

The lack of sufficient progress towards climate goals, alongside the contentious host country, has added to the growing sense of failure of the COP process. Many believe there to be an absence of overall ambition, which has come with calls to reform the COP. It is uncertain what a reform will look like, if it happens, but it is clear that COP needs to shift from a discussion-based « talking shop », dominated by national and economic interests, to a solution-orientated summit, representing all of humanity equally and fairly.

The integrity and legitimacy of COP is quickly fading, so there is even more pressure on COP28 to help close the gaps in our progress towards climate goals and provide solutions to many unresolved issues like the funding of loss and damage compensation. If we are to create the change needed to combat the climate crisis, the time to walk the walk is now and the COP need to lead the way in this change. If it cannot legitimately do so, we need to urgently begin the development of an alternative process, before it really is too late.