COP28: The Halfway Point
By Talia Shehadeh, Consultant
We are about halfway through COP28, arguably one of the most controversial climate change conferences to date, even before it started. The conference is happening against a backdrop of mounting climate devastation across the globe. COP28 comes a time when meaningful action is needed more than ever. So where do the negotiations currently stand, and what can we expect moving forward in Dubai?
COP28 opened unusually and promisingly with a commitment - a $700 million pledge by nations towards the loss and damage fund. While it is a step in the right direct, it is far from the lifeline vulnerable countries expected. In fact, it only equates to 0.2% of the losses faced by developing countries from climate change. Climate observers have criticised both the relatively miniscule funds and lack of clarity around long-term strategies of allocation, not to mention the 25% World Bank overheads. Current contributions pale in comparison to the estimated $400 billion yearly climate losses already faced by developing nations – an amount that is expected keep rising. Donations like the underwhelming $17.5 million from the U.S. appear performative at best, given the vast scale of need. With no defined timeline for distributing desperately required finance, concerns persist around wealthy nations failing to genuinely take responsibility for irreparable loss and damage. This is “polluter pays” lip-service, not impact.
On top of the loss and damage fund, there has been an array of other pledges made over the course of the week. These include the UAE’s $30 billion climate finance fund, the UK’s pledge of £1.6 billion towards international climate projects, a pledge to curb methane emissions by the largest oil and gas companies, a pledge by 22 countries to triple nuclear energy capacity and a commitment by the US to deliver $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund. While each of these individually demonstrate progress, there is understandable scepticism surrounding the bundle of pledges being made. How much is “new”, how much is “real”, how much is change, and how much is PR and politics? In the case of the UK, questions may be raised about the sincerity of their efforts considering that King Charles, Rishi Sunak and David Cameron all flew to the UAE on separate private jets.
The pledges will be used by the UAE to showcase COP28 as a ‘turning point’ and a success. However, these pledges don’t necessarily translate to the actions needed to tackle the climate crisis. What’s more, they hold little bearing over what negotiators at COP28 actually decide to do. Unfortunately, it’s very possible that the pledges will amount to very little in terms of meaningful action.
Global stocktake
A large part of negotiations this year revolves around the global stocktake - the first of its kind in assessing global progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. The synthesis report published in September ahead of COP28 highlighted how far off we are from reaching our climate goals. The pressure is on for negotiators to agree and publish a plan at COP28 to get the world back on track.
So far, though, all commitments and rules remain voluntary and non-binding. And, with fossil fuel lobbyist enjoying unprecedented access at COP28, and in unprecedented numbers, optimism remains muted around prospects for impactful action coming out of the conference.
What’s more, this year’s COP comes at a time where global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are predicted hit an all-time high.
Phase-Out vs Phase-Down debate continues
In the draft text of the agreement currently being discussed at COP28, there are signs that negotiators are considering a fossil fuel phase-out. The debate around phase-out vs phase-down has dominated discussions in the lead-up to and during COP28, as it did in COP27. The fact that a phase-out has made it into the draft text is significant. However, COP28 President, Sultan Al-Jaber, was reported earlier this week As saying that there is ‘no science’ behind phasing out fossil fuels, which has raised many alarm bells, especially for scientists who worry that this nears climate denial.
While many have been pulled into the phase-out vs phase-down debate, attention has been distracted away from what is really needed – urgent and accelerated action. The obsession over the language used at COP28, as we’ve seen in this fossil fuel debate, is pulling attention away from establishing real, tangible action to address the problems at hand.
What’s genuinely important is that COP28 delivers more than rhetoric to accelerate climate action. As global emissions hit new highs and the plenary emergency worsens, it will be interesting to see how (and if) nations will move beyond their words to demonstrate their commitment to accelerating climate action. Only time will tell, but with only five scheduled days of COP remaining, the clock is ticking both on COP and our climate future.