By Mallika Basu
As we edge towards April, there have been enough developments to test even the hardiest appetite. For food, drink and hospitality businesses, the environment has grown more challenging and the margin for error smaller.
Some of this is not new. Permacrisis is the new normal. Managing reputation and communicating with creativity and integrity are no longer nice to haves. They are commercial imperatives that will separate the resilient from the rest.
Here are my key observations:
1. The policy environment will continue to tighten. The year started with the tightened HFSS regulation launch. Experts believe the Government will accelerate regulation, while shifting goalposts will create uncertainty. The long-running review of the Nutrient Profiling Model, which started in 2018 is a case in point. While the review has concluded, the new model is still pending. The lack of clarity widens the gap between intent and action and slows overall progress.
2. Tightening policy is not an invitation to game the system. Marketing scored the lowest for food system sustainability knowledge and capability in recent research from the Future Food Movement. Repurposing budgets to work around policy shifts is a short-term own goal. The opportunity lies in deeper understanding of the healthy, sustainable diets discourse. Upstream activities (production, processes, NPD) should align more closely with downstream execution (sales, marketing, communications).
3. Consumer fatigue is real. Creative campaigns will need to work much harder to cut through. Shock tactics can land with a bang or slow fizzle. While the Killer protein bar sparked debate and complaints about fearmongering, Gousto’s Big Secret Burger campaign didn’t achieve the same cut-through. With geopolitical turbulence and anxiety levels rising, campaigns that make a genuine personal and emotional connection and spread joy will outlast those chasing misery.
4. Food culture changes, at different paces. Consumer behaviour remains one of the hardest nuts for industry nudges and campaigns to crack. It can feel resolutely immobile, but it can also shift dramatically. The avocado toast brunch went from Australian cafés to global phenomenon in the blink of an eye. Until a few years ago, nobody knew what UPFs were and now they are reshaping purchasing decisions and policy discussions. People have agency as citizens. The challenge is working out how to help them exercise it.
5. In a divisive world, join forces. Misinformation, echo chambers and navel-gazing are rife, and, in the food and drink world, they are self-defeating. Some sectors have already shown the power of coordinated industry storytelling. But pockets of good practice are not enough. Many ingredients go into the perfect recipe. Transcending silos and self-interest, and telling stories honestly, creatively and with integrity is how the food and drink world will shape the conversation about progress and barriers.
6. Navigating the new normal and food futures is a tightrope. GLP blockers, AI grocery shopping tools and biohacking are reshaping consumer behaviour in ways that aren’t yet fully understood. At the same time, taste, price and convenience remain the bedrock of most purchasing decisions. Health is an increasingly powerful filter. The businesses that will thrive are those that can tread the fine line between navigating the now and what’s coming down the line.
One thing unlikely to change any time soon is the potency of food love. A consistent theme across every conversation my book has sparked is that the everyday sustenance, pleasure and joy of our meals and snacks will endure, even as portion sizes reduce for a growing number of us. If the food and drink world can navigate this transformation without leaving a bitter taste in the mouth about what the future of good food looks like, everyone emerges better for it.
Mallika Basu is senior strategic adviser to Blurred, a food writer and adviser. Her new book In Good Taste: What Shapes What We Eat and Drink – And Why It Matters is out now. She is available for in-person meetings and talks, alongside the team at Blurred, to explore the themes covered here and in her book.